Blue Jays at Royals
Last play · Ernie Clement flies out to left fielder Isaac Collins.
Win probability
Royals100%
TOR 0%KC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 0 – 6 KC
Royals led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 10 ↓
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-123 / +102
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Vinnie Pasquantino homers (11) on a fly ball to right center field. John Rave scores. Bobby Witt Jr. scores. (inning 1) — +24% Royals
6Josh Smith homers (5) on a fly ball to right field.1–6
5Nick Loftin singles on a ground ball to second baseman Josh Smith. Vinnie Pasquantino scores. Salvador Perez to 2nd.0–6
3Salvador Perez homers (19) on a fly ball to left center field. Bobby Witt Jr. scores.0–5
1Vinnie Pasquantino homers (11) on a fly ball to right center field. John Rave scores. Bobby Witt Jr. scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































