D-backs at Royals
Last play · Nick Loftin called out on strikes.
Win probability
Royals0%
AZ 100%KC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 0 – 0 KC
Tied through 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-101 / -119
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Salvador Perez doubles (23) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Tommy Troy. Kyle Isbel scores. Carter Jensen scores. Bobby Witt Jr. scores. (inning 10) — +31% Royals
10Salvador Perez doubles (23) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Tommy Troy. Kyle Isbel scores. Carter Jensen scores. Bobby Witt Jr. scores.5–4
10Carter Jensen doubles (29) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Lars Nootbaar. Isaac Collins scores. Kyle Isbel to 3rd.5–1
10Nolan Arenado singles on a line drive to center fielder Kyle Isbel. Ketel Marte scores. Gabriel Moreno to 2nd.5–0
10Gabriel Moreno singles on a line drive to right fielder John Rave. Geraldo Perdomo scores. Ketel Marte to 3rd.4–0
10Geraldo Perdomo singles on a line drive to right fielder John Rave. Ildemaro Vargas scores. Ryan Waldschmidt scores. Geraldo Perdomo to 2nd. Fielding error by right fielder John Rave.3–0
10Lars Nootbaar out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Kyle Isbel. Corbin Carroll scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































