Cardinals at Dodgers
Last play · Mookie Betts lines out to center fielder Nathan Church.
Win probability
Dodgers0%
STL 100%LAD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 0 – 3 LAD
Dodgers led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+237 / -298
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Dodgers favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Joshua Báez doubles (4) on a ground ball to left fielder Teoscar Hernández. Nathan Church scores. Thomas Saggese scores. (inning 10) — -29% Cardinals
10Tommy Edman grounds out, shortstop Thomas Saggese to first baseman Alec Burleson. Will Smith scores.8–6
10Joshua Báez doubles (4) on a ground ball to left fielder Teoscar Hernández. Nathan Church scores. Thomas Saggese scores.8–5
10Thomas Saggese singles on a ground ball to second baseman Alex Freeland. José Fermín scores. Nathan Church to 2nd.6–5
8Alec Burleson out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Kyle Tucker. Joshua Báez scores.5–5
7Leo Bernal homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field. Jordan Walker scores.4–5
6Mookie Betts homers (17) on a fly ball to left center field. Tommy Edman scores.2–5
6Thomas Saggese homers (4) on a fly ball to center field. Nathan Church scores.2–3
1Freddie Freeman homers (16) on a fly ball to center field. Shohei Ohtani scores. Tommy Edman scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































