Reds at Dodgers
Last play · Carlos Jorge flies out sharply to center fielder Alex Call.
Win probability
Dodgers100%
CIN 0%LAD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 1 – 2 LAD
Dodgers led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 49.4% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+249 / -314
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Dodgers favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Miguel Rojas reaches on a throwing error by third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes. Teoscar Hernández scores. Alex Call scores. Miguel Rojas to 3rd. (inning 5) — +30% Dodgers
8Will Smith out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Dane Myers. Max Muncy scores. Teoscar Hernández to 3rd. Kyle Tucker to 2nd.3–6
8Dane Myers grounds out, third baseman Max Muncy to first baseman Freddie Freeman. Héctor Rodríguez scores.3–5
7Eugenio Suárez homers (22) on a fly ball to center field.2–5
6Teoscar Hernández homers (13) on a fly ball to left field. Freddie Freeman scores. Max Muncy scores.1–5
5Miguel Rojas reaches on a throwing error by third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes. Teoscar Hernández scores. Alex Call scores. Miguel Rojas to 3rd.1–2
1Elly De La Cruz homers (24) on a fly ball to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































