Reds at Marlins
CIN6–
MIA3Last play · Connor Norby grounds into a double play, shortstop Elly De La Cruz to second baseman Matt McLain to first baseman Spencer Steer. Graham Pauley out at 2nd. Connor Norby out at 1st.
Win probability
Marlins0%
CIN 100%MIA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 0 – 2 MIA
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7 ↑
fair over 46.9% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -144
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Marlins favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Spencer Steer challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Spencer Steer called out on strikes. (inning 9) — -38% Reds
10Graham Pauley grounds into a force out, fielded by shortstop Elly De La Cruz. Jakob Marsee scores. Otto Lopez out at 2nd. Graham Pauley to 1st.6–3
10Elly De La Cruz grounds out, third baseman Graham Pauley to first baseman Connor Norby. TJ Friedl scores. Matt McLain to 3rd.6–2
10Matt McLain doubles (3) on a sharp fly ball to left fielder Javier Sanoja. Tyler Stephenson scores. Dane Myers scores. TJ Friedl to 3rd.5–2
10Nathaniel Lowe singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Spencer Steer scores. Tyler Stephenson to 2nd.3–2
9Spencer Steer challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Spencer Steer called out on strikes.2–2
9Sal Stewart out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Griffin Conine. Matt McLain scores. Elly De La Cruz to 3rd.1–2
4Heriberto Hernández grounds out, third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes to first baseman Sal Stewart. Jakob Marsee scores.0–2
4Otto Lopez grounds out, second baseman Matt McLain to first baseman Sal Stewart. Agustín Ramírez scores. Jakob Marsee to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.