Reds at Marlins
Last play · Heriberto Hernández grounds out, shortstop Elly De La Cruz to first baseman Sal Stewart.
Win probability
Marlins0%
CIN 100%MIA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 1 – 0 MIA
Reds led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 48% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+123 / -149
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Marlins favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tyler Stephenson homers (2) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 8) — -23% Reds
8Tyler Stephenson homers (2) on a fly ball to left field.2–0
4Sal Stewart singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Elly De La Cruz scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































