Reds at Marlins
Last play · Matt McLain called out on strikes.
Win probability
Marlins100%
CIN 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 4 – 6 MIA
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+109 / -131
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Marlins favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Liam Hicks singles on a ground ball to right fielder Noelvi Marte. Agustín Ramírez scores. (inning 1) — +14% Marlins
7Connor Norby homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.4–7
5Sal Stewart homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. Matt McLain scores.4–6
3Griffin Conine homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field. Liam Hicks scores.2–6
2Xavier Edwards singles on a line drive to left fielder Will Benson. Jakob Marsee scores.2–4
2Jakob Marsee singles on a ground ball to right fielder Noelvi Marte. Griffin Conine scores.2–3
1Liam Hicks singles on a ground ball to right fielder Noelvi Marte. Agustín Ramírez scores.2–2
1Agustín Ramírez doubles (3) on a line drive to left fielder Will Benson. Xavier Edwards scores.2–1
1Eugenio Suárez doubles (1) on a fly ball to right fielder Owen Caissie. Sal Stewart scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































