Cubs at Marlins
Last play · Otto Lopez flies out to right fielder Seiya Suzuki.
Win probability
Marlins0%
CHC 100%MIA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 5 – 4 MIA
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-126 / +105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Marlins favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Griffin Conine homers (15) on a fly ball to right field. Javier Sanoja scores. (inning 5) — +28% Marlins
7Kyle Stowers homers (19) on a fly ball to center field.6–5
6Michael Busch singles on a line drive to right fielder Owen Caissie. Michael Conforto scores. Seiya Suzuki to 3rd.6–4
5Griffin Conine homers (15) on a fly ball to right field. Javier Sanoja scores.5–4
5Nico Hoerner singles on a line drive to right fielder Owen Caissie. Michael Busch scores.5–2
4Joe Mack lines into a force out, left fielder Ian Happ to second baseman Pedro Ramírez. Otto Lopez scores. Owen Caissie out at 2nd. Joe Mack to 1st.4–2
4Owen Caissie grounds into a force out, second baseman Pedro Ramírez to shortstop Nico Hoerner. Griffin Conine scores. Otto Lopez to 3rd. Jakob Marsee out at 2nd. Owen Caissie to 1st.4–1
4Pete Crow-Armstrong singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Miguel Amaya scores. Pete Crow-Armstrong to 2nd.4–0
3Ian Happ singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Owen Caissie. Miguel Amaya scores. Seiya Suzuki scores. Alex Bregman to 3rd.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































