Cubs at Marlins
CHC3–
MIA10Last play · Carson Kelly strikes out on a foul tip.
Win probability
Marlins100%
CHC 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 3 – 8 MIA
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 51.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-142 / +118
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Marlins favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Owen Caissie singles on a ground ball to right fielder Seiya Suzuki. Javier Sanoja scores. Kyle Stowers scores. Griffin Conine to 3rd. (inning 5) — +18% Marlins
7Javier Sanoja homers (8) on a fly ball to left field. Otto Lopez scores.3–10
5Joe Mack singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Seiya Suzuki. Owen Caissie scores. Heriberto Hernández to 2nd.3–8
5Heriberto Hernández singles on a line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Griffin Conine scores. Owen Caissie to 2nd.3–7
5Owen Caissie singles on a ground ball to right fielder Seiya Suzuki. Javier Sanoja scores. Kyle Stowers scores. Griffin Conine to 3rd.3–6
5Griffin Conine hit by pitch. Graham Pauley scores. Javier Sanoja to 3rd. Kyle Stowers to 2nd.3–4
5Pete Crow-Armstrong homers (40) on a fly ball to right field.3–3
4Heriberto Hernández homers (24) on a fly ball to left field.2–3
4Nico Hoerner grounds into a double play, shortstop Otto Lopez to second baseman Javier Sanoja to first baseman Griffin Conine. Alex Bregman scores. Michael Conforto out at 2nd. Nico Hoerner out at 1st.2–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.