Mets at Marlins
NYM15–
MIA14Last play · Graham Pauley pops out to shortstop Francisco Lindor.
Win probability
Marlins0%
NYM 100%MIA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 8 – 3 MIA
Mets led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+108 / -131
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Marlins favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jakob Marsee singles on a ground ball to left fielder Juan Soto. Heriberto Hernández scores. Griffin Conine scores. Otto Lopez to 2nd. (inning 6) — +31% Marlins
9Jakob Marsee singles on a line drive to right fielder Carson Benge. Otto Lopez scores.15–14
9Otto Lopez triples (9) on a line drive to right fielder Carson Benge. Griffin Conine scores.15–13
9Griffin Conine doubles (7) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Carson Benge. Kyle Stowers scores.15–12
8Graham Pauley singles on a ground ball to center fielder A.J. Ewing, deflected by pitcher Jonathan Pintaro. Javier Sanoja scores. Owen Caissie to 3rd.15–11
8Owen Caissie singles on a line drive to right fielder Carson Benge. Otto Lopez scores. Javier Sanoja to 3rd.15–10
8Luis Torrens singles on a ground ball to shortstop Otto Lopez, deflected by third baseman Graham Pauley. Jared Young scores. A.J. Ewing to 3rd.15–9
7Joe Mack homers (13) on a fly ball to right center field.14–9
7Francisco Lindor homers (18) on a fly ball to right field. Christopher Morel scores. Luis Torrens scores.14–8
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.