Dodgers at Marlins
Last play · Jakob Marsee strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Marlins0%
LAD 100%MIA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAD 1 – 0 MIA
Dodgers led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-209 / +171
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Marlins favored ↑50%Dodgers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kyle Tucker hits a grand slam (14) to right center field. Tommy Edman scores. Max Muncy scores. Mookie Betts scores. (inning 7) — -28% Dodgers
8Owen Caissie out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Teoscar Hernández. Javier Sanoja scores.6–2
7Kyle Tucker hits a grand slam (14) to right center field. Tommy Edman scores. Max Muncy scores. Mookie Betts scores.6–1
6Agustín Ramírez doubles (9) on a line drive to center fielder Tommy Edman. Javier Sanoja scores.2–1
6Will Smith singles on a fly ball to right fielder Esteury Ruiz. Kyle Tucker scores.2–0
3Kyle Tucker out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Heriberto Hernández. Tommy Edman scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































