Rangers at Brewers
Last play · Evan Carter flies out to center fielder Garrett Mitchell.
Win probability
Brewers100%
TEX 0%MIL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 1 – 3 MIL
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+154 / -166
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Brewers favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Cody Freeman homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 5) — -11% Rangers
8Brandon Nimmo homers (14) on a fly ball to right center field. Corey Seager scores.3–5
7Cooper Pratt out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Wyatt Langford. Garrett Mitchell scores.1–5
7Luis Lara singles on a line drive to left fielder Wyatt Langford. William Contreras scores. Garrett Mitchell to 3rd. Christian Yelich to 2nd.1–4
5Cody Freeman homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field.1–3
2Luis Lara singles on a line drive to center fielder Ezequiel Duran. Christian Yelich scores. Luis Lara out at 2nd on the throw, center fielder Ezequiel Duran to shortstop Corey Seager.0–3
1William Contreras homers (13) on a fly ball to left field.0–2
1Jackson Chourio homers (20) on a fly ball to center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































