Cubs at Brewers
Last play · Luis Lara singles on a line drive to left fielder Matt Shaw. Brice Turang scores. William Contreras to 3rd. Sal Frelick to 2nd.
Win probability
Brewers100%
CHC 0%MIL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 1 – 1 MIL
Tied through 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 52.6% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+163 / -199
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Brewers favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jackson Chourio homers (22) on a fly ball to left field. Christian Yelich scores. (inning 9) — +49% Brewers
10Luis Lara singles on a line drive to left fielder Matt Shaw. Brice Turang scores. William Contreras to 3rd. Sal Frelick to 2nd.3–4
9Jackson Chourio homers (22) on a fly ball to left field. Christian Yelich scores.3–3
9Carson Kelly doubles (14) on a fly ball to center fielder Garrett Mitchell. Nico Hoerner scores. Pedro Ramírez scores. Michael Conforto to 3rd.3–1
1Brice Turang singles on a ground ball to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Jackson Chourio scores.1–1
1Michael Busch singles on a line drive to right fielder Luis Lara. Seiya Suzuki scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































