Tigers at Twins
Last play · Royce Lewis grounds out sharply, third baseman Kevin McGonigle to first baseman Spencer Torkelson.
Win probability
Twins0%
DET 100%MIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalDET 4 – 1 MIN
Tigers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Twins favored ↑50%Tigers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Spencer Torkelson homers (21) on a fly ball to left field. Hao-Yu Lee scores. (inning 12) — -61% Tigers
12Javier Báez doubles (11) on a pop up to right fielder Luke Keaschall, deflected by first baseman Royce Lewis. Ben Malgeri scores. Max Clark scores. John Peck scores.11–6
12Spencer Torkelson homers (21) on a fly ball to left field. Hao-Yu Lee scores.8–6
11Luke Keaschall singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Ben Malgeri. Kaelen Culpepper scores.6–6
11Max Clark doubles (7) on a fly ball to left fielder Kody Clemens. Ben Malgeri scores.6–5
8Royce Lewis singles on a ground ball to center fielder Max Clark. Kody Clemens scores. Ben Ross scores. Ryan Kreidler to 3rd. Royce Lewis to 2nd.5–5
8Victor Caratini walks. Brooks Lee scores. Kody Clemens to 3rd. Ben Ross to 2nd.5–3
6Trevor Larnach doubles (22) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Zach McKinstry. Ryan Jeffers scores. Josh Bell to 3rd.5–2
6John Peck singles on a ground ball to right fielder Luke Keaschall. Max Clark scores.5–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































