Guardians at Twins
Last play · Walker Jenkins grounds into a double play, first baseman David Fry to shortstop Brayan Rocchio. Trevor Larnach out at 2nd. Walker Jenkins out at 1st.
Win probability
Twins0%
CLE 100%MIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCLE 0 – 1 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.7% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-109 / -110
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Twins favored ↑50%Guardians favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brayan Rocchio doubles (21) on a line drive to center fielder Walker Jenkins. Angel Martínez scores. Angel Genao scores. (inning 9) — -47% Guardians
9Brayan Rocchio doubles (21) on a line drive to center fielder Walker Jenkins. Angel Martínez scores. Angel Genao scores.5–2
7Kaelen Culpepper singles on a line drive to left fielder Angel Martínez. Austin Martin scores.2–2
7Angel Martínez homers (15) on a fly ball to left center field. Travis Bazzana scores.2–1
2Royce Lewis doubles (23) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Angel Martínez. Kody Clemens scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































