D-backs at Mets
AZ7–
NYM2Last play · Francisco Lindor grounds out, shortstop Geraldo Perdomo to first baseman Jose Fernandez.
Win probability
Mets0%
AZ 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 5 – 0 NYM
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+117 / -141
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Mets favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Corbin Carroll doubles (3) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Luis Robert Jr. Jose Fernandez scores. Jorge Barrosa scores. Ketel Marte to 3rd. (inning 2) — -15% D-backs
8Mark Vientos out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Luis Robert Jr. scores. Brett Baty to 3rd.7–2
8Jorge Barrosa doubles (4) on a fly ball to center fielder Luis Robert Jr. Ildemaro Vargas scores. Jose Fernandez scores. Tim Tawa to 3rd.7–1
6Brett Baty singles on a line drive to center fielder Jorge Barrosa. Bo Bichette scores. Luis Robert Jr. to 2nd.5–1
2Geraldo Perdomo out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Luis Robert Jr. Ketel Marte scores.5–0
2Corbin Carroll doubles (3) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Luis Robert Jr. Jose Fernandez scores. Jorge Barrosa scores. Ketel Marte to 3rd.4–0
2Ketel Marte singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Brett Baty. Ildemaro Vargas scores. Jose Fernandez to 3rd. Jorge Barrosa to 2nd.2–0
1Gabriel Moreno out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Brett Baty. Corbin Carroll scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.