Giants at Mets
Last play · Osleivis Basabe strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Mets100%
SF 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 2 – 0 NYM
Giants led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 9 ↓
fair over 50.6% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+130 / -157
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Bo Bichette homers (16) on a fly ball to left center field. A.J. Ewing scores. Juan Soto scores. (inning 8) — +66% Mets
8Bo Bichette homers (16) on a fly ball to left center field. A.J. Ewing scores. Juan Soto scores.2–4
8Brett Baty homers (9) on a fly ball to left field.2–1
4Jung Hoo Lee singles on a fly ball to right fielder Carson Benge. Bryce Eldridge scores. Jonah Cox scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































