Giants at Mets
Last play · Francisco Lindor flies out to left fielder Turner Hill.
Win probability
Mets0%
SF 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 6 – 2 NYM
Giants led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 49.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+141 / -171
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mets favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · A.J. Ewing homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field. Marcus Semien scores. (inning 2) — +25% Mets
9Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was upheld: Brett Baty doubles (19) on a fly ball to left fielder Turner Hill. Jared Young scores. A.J. Ewing scores.9–5
9Grant McCray homers (2) on a fly ball to center field.9–3
8Osleivis Basabe homers (5) on a line drive to left center field. Bryce Eldridge scores.8–3
7Brett Baty walks. Jared Young scores. Marcus Semien to 3rd. A.J. Ewing to 2nd.6–3
5Rafael Devers homers (35) on a fly ball to left field. Jonah Cox scores.6–2
5Christian Koss homers (3) on a fly ball to left field.4–2
3Christian Koss homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Grant McCray scores.3–2
2A.J. Ewing homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field. Marcus Semien scores.1–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































