Marlins at Yankees
Last play · Griffin Conine strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Yankees100%
MIA 0%NYY 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 4 – 2 NYY
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 47.7% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+164 / -201
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Yankees favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Javier Sanoja doubles (3) on a ground ball to left fielder Cody Bellinger. Liam Hicks scores. Xavier Edwards scores. (inning 8) — -34% Marlins
9Xavier Edwards singles on a ground ball to left fielder Cody Bellinger. Otto Lopez scores. Liam Hicks to 2nd.7–9
8Jazz Chisholm Jr. pops out to third baseman Javier Sanoja in foul territory.6–9
8Giancarlo Stanton singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Ryan McMahon scores. Aaron Judge scores. Ben Rice to 3rd.6–8
8Javier Sanoja doubles (3) on a ground ball to left fielder Cody Bellinger. Liam Hicks scores. Xavier Edwards scores.6–6
7José Caballero called out on strikes.4–6
6Cody Bellinger out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Heriberto Hernández. Trent Grisham scores. Aaron Judge to 2nd.4–5
6Aaron Judge singles on a ground ball to right fielder Griffin Conine. José Caballero scores. Trent Grisham to 3rd.4–4
6Trent Grisham singles on a ground ball to left fielder Heriberto Hernández. Paul Goldschmidt scores. José Caballero to 2nd.4–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































