Marlins at Yankees
Last play · Liam Hicks flies out to left fielder Cody Bellinger.
Win probability
Yankees100%
MIA 0%NYY 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 2 – 4 NYY
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+139 / -168
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Yankees favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Aaron Judge homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. Trent Grisham scores. (inning 1) — +22% Yankees
8Ben Rice doubles (4) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Aaron Judge scores. Cody Bellinger scores.2–8
7Ben Rice homers (2) on a line drive to right field.2–6
6Cody Bellinger flies out to center fielder Jakob Marsee.2–5
5Owen Caissie homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field.2–4
2Aaron Judge hit by pitch. José Caballero scores. Ryan McMahon to 3rd. Trent Grisham to 2nd.1–4
2Trent Grisham walks. Jazz Chisholm Jr. scores. José Caballero to 3rd. Ryan McMahon to 2nd.1–3
1Aaron Judge homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. Trent Grisham scores.1–2
1Xavier Edwards homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































