Red Sox at Yankees
Last play · Jarren Duran flies out to left fielder Cody Bellinger.
Win probability
Yankees100%
BOS 0%NYY 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 1 – 3 NYY
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 53.1% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+130 / -140
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nick Sogard homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 3) — -18% Red Sox
8Ben Rice singles on a ground ball to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Spencer Jones scores. Austin Wells scores. José Caballero to 3rd.2–9
8Austin Wells singles on a soft pop up to shortstop Andruw Monasterio. Jazz Chisholm Jr. scores. Amed Rosario scores. Spencer Jones to 2nd.2–7
8Amed Rosario singles on a fly ball to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Cody Bellinger scores. Jazz Chisholm Jr. to 2nd.2–5
8Willson Contreras triples (3) on a line drive to right fielder Spencer Jones. Wilyer Abreu scores.2–4
6Spencer Jones out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Jarren Duran. Luis García Jr. scores.1–4
3Jazz Chisholm Jr. out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Ben Rice scores.1–3
3Luis García Jr. grounds into a force out, second baseman Nick Sogard to shortstop Andruw Monasterio. Trent Grisham scores. Ben Rice to 3rd. Heliot Ramos out at 2nd. Luis García Jr. to 1st.1–2
3Ben Rice singles on a line drive to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. José Caballero scores. Trent Grisham to 3rd. Fielding error by right fielder Wilyer Abreu.1–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































