Rockies at Yankees
Last play · Mickey Moniak strikes out swinging, catcher Austin Wells to first baseman Luis García Jr.
Win probability
Yankees100%
COL 0%NYY 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCOL 1 – 2 NYY
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 50.6% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+277 / -354
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%Rockies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ryan McMahon doubles (13) on a line drive to right fielder Zac Veen. George Lombard Jr. scores. (inning 5) — +15% Yankees
9Hunter Goodman homers (37) on a fly ball to right field. TJ Rumfield scores.3–5
8Heliot Ramos homers (11) on a fly ball to center field. Ben Rice scores. Cody Bellinger scores.1–5
5Ryan McMahon doubles (13) on a line drive to right fielder Zac Veen. George Lombard Jr. scores.1–2
3Adael Amador homers (3) on a line drive to right center field.1–1
1Luis García Jr. singles on a fly ball to left fielder Jake McCarthy. Cody Bellinger scores. Luis García Jr. to 3rd. Fielding error by left fielder Jake McCarthy. Throwing error by left fielder Jake McCarthy.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































