Mets at Yankees
Last play · George Lombard Jr. strikes out on a foul tip.
Win probability
Yankees0%
NYM 100%NYY 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 5 – 1 NYY
Mets led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 51% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+141 / -171
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Yankees favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luis Torrens homers (9) on a line drive to left field. Jared Young scores. (inning 2) — -18% Mets
9Jared Young homers (9) on a fly ball to right field.12–2
8Francisco Lindor hits a grand slam (20) to right center field. A.J. Ewing scores. Luis Torrens scores. Nick Morabito scores.11–2
8Luis Torrens doubles (14) on a line drive to left fielder Cody Bellinger. Marcus Semien scores. A.J. Ewing to 3rd.7–2
7Juan Soto homers (25) on a fly ball to right center field.6–2
6Cody Bellinger homers (15) on a fly ball to right center field.5–2
5Carson Benge singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Spencer Jones. Juan Soto scores.5–1
4Cody Bellinger singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Carson Benge. Paul Goldschmidt scores.4–1
3Carson Benge homers (17) on a fly ball to right center field.4–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































