Astros at Phillies
Last play · Trea Turner grounds out, second baseman Nick Allen to first baseman Christian Walker.
Win probability
Phillies0%
HOU 100%PHI 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 1 – 1 PHI
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+159 / -194
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Cam Smith homers (20) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 9) — -34% Astros
9Cam Smith homers (20) on a fly ball to center field.2–1
5Bryson Stott reaches on a fielder's choice out, shortstop Jeremy Peña to third baseman Isaac Paredes. Luis Arraez scores. Alec Bohm out at 3rd.1–1
2Taylor Trammell doubles (10) on a line drive to right fielder Bryce Harper. Christian Walker scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































