Orioles at Pirates
Last play · Nick Yorke doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Dylan Beavers. Bryan Reynolds scores. Ryan O'Hearn to 3rd.
Win probability
Pirates100%
BAL 0%PIT 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 2 – 1 PIT
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-108 / -112
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Pirates favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jake Mangum reaches on a fielding error by pitcher Anthony Nunez. Nick Yorke scores. Nick Gonzales to 2nd. (inning 8) — +32% Pirates
9Nick Yorke doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Dylan Beavers. Bryan Reynolds scores. Ryan O'Hearn to 3rd.2–3
8Jake Mangum reaches on a fielding error by pitcher Anthony Nunez. Nick Yorke scores. Nick Gonzales to 2nd.2–2
4Spencer Horwitz out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Dylan Beavers. Bryan Reynolds scores.2–1
4Leody Taveras singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Ryan O'Hearn. Adley Rutschman scores. Dylan Beavers to 3rd. Coby Mayo to 2nd.2–0
4Dylan Beavers singles on a line drive to right fielder Ryan O'Hearn. Gunnar Henderson scores. Adley Rutschman to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































