Padres at Pirates
Last play · Jake Mangum grounds out, third baseman Miguel Andujar to first baseman Ty France.
Win probability
Pirates0%
SD 100%PIT 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 0 – 0 PIT
Tied through 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-121 / +100
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Pirates favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nick Castellanos doubles (3) on a sharp fly ball to left fielder Jake Mangum. Xander Bogaerts scores. Miguel Andujar scores. (inning 7) — -31% Padres
9Xander Bogaerts strikes out swinging.8–2
9Jackson Merrill reaches on a fielder's choice. Ramón Laureano scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. to 3rd. Throwing error by first baseman Nick Yorke.7–2
9Fernando Tatis Jr. singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jake Mangum. Luis Campusano scores. Ramón Laureano to 2nd.6–2
9Luis Campusano doubles (2) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jake Mangum. Bryce Johnson scores.5–2
7Joey Bart singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Nick Gonzales scores.4–2
7Konnor Griffin out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Ramón Laureano. Nick Yorke scores.4–1
7Jake Cronenworth homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field. Nick Castellanos scores.4–0
7Nick Castellanos doubles (3) on a sharp fly ball to left fielder Jake Mangum. Xander Bogaerts scores. Miguel Andujar scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































