Padres at Pirates
Last play · Xander Bogaerts grounds out, second baseman Nick Gonzales to first baseman Ryan O'Hearn.
Win probability
Pirates100%
SD 0%PIT 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 0 – 2 PIT
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
6
opened 7 ↓
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+128 / -154
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Pirates favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Oneil Cruz doubles (1) on a ground ball to left fielder Ramón Laureano. Spencer Horwitz scores. Konnor Griffin scores. Oneil Cruz to 3rd. Oneil Cruz advances to 3rd, on a fielding error by catcher Freddy Fermin. (inning 5) — +25% Pirates
8Konnor Griffin singles on a ground ball to left fielder Ramón Laureano. Nick Gonzales scores. Jake Mangum scores.1–7
8Jake Mangum singles on a line drive to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Nick Yorke scores. Nick Gonzales to 3rd.1–5
8Nick Gonzales singles on a ground ball to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Bryan Reynolds scores. Ryan O'Hearn scores. Nick Yorke to 3rd.1–4
7Xander Bogaerts homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.1–2
5Oneil Cruz doubles (1) on a ground ball to left fielder Ramón Laureano. Spencer Horwitz scores. Konnor Griffin scores. Oneil Cruz to 3rd. Oneil Cruz advances to 3rd, on a fielding error by catcher Freddy Fermin.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































