Padres at Pirates
Last play · Jake Mangum bunt grounds out softly, pitcher David Morgan to first baseman Gavin Sheets.
Win probability
Pirates0%
SD 100%PIT 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 3 – 0 PIT
Padres led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -143
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Pirates favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nick Castellanos doubles (2) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Bryan Reynolds. Manny Machado scores. Gavin Sheets to 3rd. (inning 4) — -14% Padres
8Ramón Laureano doubles (2) on a fly ball to right fielder Ryan O'Hearn. Freddy Fermin scores.5–0
6Jake Cronenworth doubles (1) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Ryan O'Hearn. Freddy Fermin scores.4–0
5Manny Machado grounds out, pitcher Yohan Ramírez to first baseman Spencer Horwitz to pitcher Yohan Ramírez. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Jackson Merrill to 3rd.3–0
5Jackson Merrill hits a ground-rule double (2) on a fly ball to left-center field. Ramón Laureano scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. to 3rd.2–0
4Nick Castellanos doubles (2) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Bryan Reynolds. Manny Machado scores. Gavin Sheets to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































