Giants at Pirates
Last play · Rafael Flores Jr. lines out sharply to center fielder Jonah Cox.
Win probability
Pirates0%
SF 100%PIT 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 3 – 1 PIT
Giants led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 49.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+134 / -162
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Oneil Cruz singles on a sharp ground ball to shortstop Christian Koss. Bryan Reynolds scores. (inning 8) — +32% Pirates
10Nick Gonzales singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jonah Cox. Bryan Reynolds scores.5–4
10Turner Hill out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Esmerlyn Valdez. Rafael Devers scores. Grant McCray to 3rd.5–3
10Bryce Eldridge doubles (18) on a line drive to left fielder Jake Mangum. Christian Koss scores. Rafael Devers to 3rd.4–3
8Oneil Cruz singles on a sharp ground ball to shortstop Christian Koss. Bryan Reynolds scores.3–3
7Spencer Horwitz grounds out, shortstop Christian Koss to first baseman Rafael Devers. Rafael Flores Jr. scores. Jake Mangum to 3rd.3–2
5Turner Hill singles on a line drive to right fielder Esmerlyn Valdez. Drew Gilbert scores. Rafael Devers to 3rd.3–1
5Bryce Eldridge out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Christian Koss scores.2–1
4Esmerlyn Valdez walks. Spencer Horwitz scores. Bryan Reynolds to 3rd. Nick Gonzales to 2nd.1–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































