Giants at Pirates
Last play · Jung Hoo Lee grounds out, first baseman Spencer Horwitz to pitcher Mason Montgomery.
Win probability
Pirates100%
SF 0%PIT 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 0 – 2 PIT
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+144 / -175
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jake Mangum hit by pitch. Bryan Reynolds scores. Nick Gonzales to 3rd. Oneil Cruz to 2nd. (inning 1) — +9% Pirates
8Jared Triolo out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Drew Gilbert. Jake Mangum scores.2–5
7Nate Furman grounds out, first baseman Spencer Horwitz to pitcher Yohan Ramírez. Turner Hill scores. Jung Hoo Lee to 3rd.2–4
7Jung Hoo Lee doubles (28) on a line drive to right fielder Bryan Reynolds. Jonah Cox scores. Turner Hill to 3rd.1–4
6Pirates challenged (play at 1st), call on the field was overturned: Jared Triolo grounds into a force out, second baseman Nate Furman to shortstop Christian Koss. Jake Mangum scores. Nick Yorke out at 2nd. Jared Triolo to 1st.0–4
6Jake Mangum hits a sacrifice bunt. Throwing error by pitcher Reiver Sanmartin. Oneil Cruz scores. Jake Mangum to 2nd.0–3
1Jake Mangum hit by pitch. Bryan Reynolds scores. Nick Gonzales to 3rd. Oneil Cruz to 2nd.0–2
1Oneil Cruz walks. Spencer Horwitz scores. Bryan Reynolds to 3rd. Nick Gonzales to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































