Angels at Pirates
Last play · Brandon Lowe strikes out on a foul tip.
Win probability
Pirates0%
LAA 100%PIT 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAA 3 – 0 PIT
Angels led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+154 / -188
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Angels favored ↓
Biggest swing · Josh Lowe homers (11) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 5) — -18% Angels
8Bryan Reynolds homers (16) on a fly ball to right field.6–1
7Wade Meckler doubles (13) on a fly ball to center fielder Jake Mangum. Zach Neto scores. Mike Trout scores. Wade Meckler to 3rd.6–0
7Mike Trout singles on a ground ball to left fielder Bryan Reynolds. Adam Frazier scores. Zach Neto to 2nd.4–0
5Zach Neto singles on a line drive to center fielder Jake Mangum. Denzer Guzman scores.3–0
5Josh Lowe homers (11) on a fly ball to center field.2–0
4Moisés Ballesteros singles on a ground ball to right fielder Esmerlyn Valdez. Wade Meckler scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































