Nationals at Padres
Last play · Brady House grounds out, shortstop Xander Bogaerts to first baseman Ty France.
Win probability
Padres100%
WSH 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 0 – 3 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+164 / -200
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Padres favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Dylan Crews homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field. Abimelec Ortiz scores. (inning 6) — -22% Nationals
6Dylan Crews homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field. Abimelec Ortiz scores.2–3
3Jackson Merrill singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jacob Young. Manny Machado scores. Jackson Merrill to 2nd.0–3
3Manny Machado singles on a ground ball to left fielder Dylan Crews. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Jake Cronenworth to 2nd.0–2
1Jackson Merrill singles on a line drive to right fielder James Wood. Manny Machado scores. Ty France to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































