Nationals at Padres
Last play · Keibert Ruiz grounds out, first baseman Ty France to pitcher Griffin Canning.
Win probability
Padres100%
WSH 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 2 – 7 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 49.8% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+154 / -187
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Padres favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jackson Merrill triples (4) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Dylan Crews, deflected by center fielder Jacob Young. Manny Machado scores. Ty France scores. (inning 3) — +25% Padres
8Jackson Merrill singles on a ground ball to second baseman José Tena, deflected by first baseman Andrés Chaparro. Xander Bogaerts scores. Ty France to 2nd.2–9
7Jackson Merrill homers (24) on a fly ball to center field.2–8
5Jackson Merrill homers (23) on a fly ball to left field. Ty France scores.2–7
4Fernando Tatis Jr. singles on a ground ball to left fielder Daylen Lile. Samad Taylor scores.2–5
4Samad Taylor singles on a soft bunt ground ball to pitcher Jackson Kent. Austin Hays scores. Samad Taylor to 2nd. Throwing error by pitcher Jackson Kent.2–4
3Jackson Merrill triples (4) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Dylan Crews, deflected by center fielder Jacob Young. Manny Machado scores. Ty France scores.2–3
3Ty France singles on a ground ball to left fielder Daylen Lile. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Manny Machado to 2nd.2–1
3Dylan Crews singles on a line drive to right fielder Jase Bowen. Nasim Nuñez scores. Jacob Young to 3rd. James Wood to 2nd.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































