Nationals at Padres
Last play · Jacob Young flies out to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr.
Win probability
Padres100%
WSH 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 1 – 0 SD
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 49.8% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+154 / -187
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Padres favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Manny Machado singles on a ground ball to center fielder Dylan Crews. Freddy Fermin scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. (inning 8) — +45% Padres
8Luis Campusano singles on a fly ball to right fielder James Wood. Manny Machado scores. Ty France to 3rd.4–5
8Manny Machado singles on a ground ball to center fielder Dylan Crews. Freddy Fermin scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores.4–4
8Austin Hays out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder James Wood. Xander Bogaerts scores. Freddy Fermin to 3rd.4–2
8Andrés Chaparro homers (10) on a line drive to left field.4–1
7Jackson Merrill out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder James Wood. Manny Machado scores. Ty France to 3rd.3–1
6Brady House doubles (15) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Abimelec Ortiz scores. CJ Abrams scores.3–0
2Yohandy Morales homers (2) on a fly ball to left field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































