Athletics at Mariners
Last play · Taylor Ward strikes out swinging, catcher Brian Serven to first baseman Jeff McNeil.
Win probability
Mariners0%
ATH 100%SEA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATH 4 – 3 SEA
Athletics led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+202 / -250
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%Athletics favored ↓
Biggest swing · Lawrence Butler singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Henry Bolte scores. Zack Gelof scores. (inning 5) — -31% Athletics
9Jeff McNeil doubles (20) on a line drive to right fielder Lazaro Montes. Jonah Heim scores.7–4
8Max Muncy singles on a ground ball to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Jeff McNeil scores. Donovan Walton to 2nd.6–4
6Julio Rodríguez grounds into a force out, shortstop Alika Williams to second baseman Donovan Walton. Randy Arozarena scores. Dominic Canzone out at 2nd. Julio Rodríguez to 1st.5–4
6Donovan Walton homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field.5–3
5Lawrence Butler singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Henry Bolte scores. Zack Gelof scores.4–3
2Athletics challenged (play at 1st), call on the field was upheld: Athletics challenged (force play), call on the field was upheld: Alika Williams grounds into a double play, third baseman Brock Rodden to second baseman Cole Young to first baseman Josh Naylor. Jeff McNeil scores. Michael Stefanic to 3rd. Brian Serven out at 2nd. Alika Williams out at 1st.2–3
1Lazaro Montes singles on a line drive to left fielder Zack Gelof. Cal Raleigh scores. Cole Young to 2nd.1–3
1Cal Raleigh singles on a ground ball to right fielder Lawrence Butler. Julio Rodríguez scores.1–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































