Athletics at Mariners
Last play · Zack Gelof grounds out, third baseman Brock Rodden to first baseman Josh Naylor.
Win probability
Mariners100%
ATH 0%SEA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATH 0 – 2 SEA
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 51% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+177 / -217
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Mariners favored ↑50%Athletics favored ↓
Biggest swing · Cal Raleigh singles on a line drive to left fielder Carlos Cortes. Dominic Canzone scores. Julio Rodríguez to 2nd. (inning 4) — +13% Mariners
4J.P. Crawford singles on a ground ball to center fielder Henry Bolte. Julio Rodríguez scores. Cal Raleigh to 2nd.0–2
4Cal Raleigh singles on a line drive to left fielder Carlos Cortes. Dominic Canzone scores. Julio Rodríguez to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































