Cubs at Rays
CHC6–
TB2Last play · Hunter Feduccia strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Rays0%
CHC 100%TB 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 6 – 1 TB
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Rays favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Michael Conforto doubles (1) on a fly ball to right fielder Jake Fraley. Carson Kelly scores. Moisés Ballesteros scores. Dansby Swanson scores. Michael Conforto to 3rd. Michael Conforto advances to 3rd, on a throwing error by right fielder Jake Fraley. Michael Conforto advances to 3rd, on a throwing error by first baseman Jonathan Aranda. (inning 5) — -36% Cubs
8Jake Fraley singles on a line drive to left fielder Michael Conforto. Jonathan Aranda scores. Jake Fraley to 2nd.6–2
5Michael Busch reaches on a throwing error by catcher Hunter Feduccia. Nico Hoerner scores. Michael Busch to 2nd.6–1
5Nico Hoerner doubles (6) on a ground ball to right fielder Jake Fraley. Michael Conforto scores.5–1
5Michael Conforto doubles (1) on a fly ball to right fielder Jake Fraley. Carson Kelly scores. Moisés Ballesteros scores. Dansby Swanson scores. Michael Conforto to 3rd. Michael Conforto advances to 3rd, on a throwing error by right fielder Jake Fraley. Michael Conforto advances to 3rd, on a throwing error by first baseman Jonathan Aranda.4–1
3Jonathan Aranda out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Michael Conforto. Jonny DeLuca scores.1–1
1Nico Hoerner homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.