Cubs at Rays
Last play · Taylor Walls grounds out sharply, shortstop Dansby Swanson to first baseman Michael Busch.
Win probability
Rays0%
CHC 100%TB 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 4 – 0 TB
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Rays favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Michael Conforto singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Jake Fraley. Dansby Swanson scores. (inning 2) — -15% Cubs
9Moisés Ballesteros homers (1) on a line drive to right field. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores.9–2
8Ryan Vilade singles on a line drive to pitcher Phil Maton. Yandy Díaz scores. Jonathan Aranda to 3rd.7–2
8Jonathan Aranda doubles (3) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Richie Palacios scores. Yandy Díaz to 3rd.7–1
8Nico Hoerner singles on a line drive to left fielder Chandler Simpson. Dansby Swanson scores. Michael Conforto to 2nd.7–0
7Pete Crow-Armstrong homers (1) on a fly ball to right field.6–0
6Nico Hoerner grounds into a force out, pitcher Cole Sulser to shortstop Taylor Walls to second baseman Richie Palacios. Moisés Ballesteros scores. Michael Conforto to 3rd. Matt Shaw out at 2nd. Nico Hoerner to 1st.5–0
3Moisés Ballesteros out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores.4–0
3Miguel Amaya grounds out, shortstop Taylor Walls to first baseman Jonathan Aranda.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































