Padres at Rays
Last play · Jorge Mateo singles on a line drive to left fielder Samad Taylor. Kenny Piper scores. Chandler Simpson to 3rd. Jonny DeLuca to 2nd.
Win probability
Rays100%
SD 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 2 – 1 TB
Padres led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 51% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+142 / -153
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rays favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jonny DeLuca homers (9) on a fly ball to left field. Junior Caminero scores. (inning 9) — +49% Rays
11Jorge Mateo singles on a line drive to left fielder Samad Taylor. Kenny Piper scores. Chandler Simpson to 3rd. Jonny DeLuca to 2nd.4–5
11Jonny DeLuca reaches on a fielding error by shortstop Xander Bogaerts. Richie Palacios scores. Kenny Piper to 3rd. Chandler Simpson to 2nd.4–4
11Ty France out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Jonny DeLuca. Manny Machado scores.4–3
9Jonny DeLuca homers (9) on a fly ball to left field. Junior Caminero scores.3–3
7Sung-Mun Song out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Ryan Vilade. Samad Taylor scores.3–1
4Junior Caminero homers (37) on a fly ball to left center field.2–1
4Xander Bogaerts singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jonny DeLuca, deflected by shortstop Taylor Walls. Ty France scores. Jackson Merrill scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































