Mets at Rays
Last play · Taylor Walls pops out to shortstop Francisco Lindor.
Win probability
Rays0%
NYM 100%TB 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 6 – 4 TB
Mets led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+157 / -191
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rays favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jared Young singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Victor Mesa Jr. Bo Bichette scores. Carson Benge scores. Jared Young to 2nd. Throwing error by right fielder Victor Mesa Jr. (inning 1) — -21% Mets
8Juan Soto homers (23) on a line drive to right field.10–4
7Nick Morabito doubles (1) on a line drive to left fielder Chandler Simpson. Carson Benge scores. Jared Young scores. Marcus Semien scores.9–4
4Richie Palacios homers (6) on a line drive to right field. Cedric Mullins scores.6–4
4Cedric Mullins singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Carson Benge. Chandler Simpson scores. Cedric Mullins to 2nd. Cedric Mullins advances to 2nd, on a throwing error by right fielder Carson Benge.6–2
3Jonathan Aranda singles on a ground ball to left fielder Brett Baty. Taylor Walls scores. Yandy Díaz to 2nd.6–1
3Brett Baty doubles (18) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Chandler Simpson. Bo Bichette scores. Marcus Semien scores. A.J. Ewing scores.6–0
1Marcus Semien doubles (11) on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Chandler Simpson. Jared Young scores.3–0
1Jared Young singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Victor Mesa Jr. Bo Bichette scores. Carson Benge scores. Jared Young to 2nd. Throwing error by right fielder Victor Mesa Jr.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































