Mariners at Rangers
Last play · Umpire reviewed (play at 1st), call on the field was upheld: Brendan Donovan grounds out softly, catcher Kyle Higashioka to first baseman Jake Burger.
Win probability
Rangers100%
SEA 0%TEX 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 2 – 3 TEX
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-118 / -102
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Rangers favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kyle Higashioka homers (1) on a line drive to left center field. Evan Carter scores. (inning 5) — +30% Rangers
5Kyle Higashioka homers (1) on a line drive to left center field. Evan Carter scores.2–3
5Evan Carter singles on a ground ball to right fielder Luke Raley. Joc Pederson scores.2–1
5Cal Raleigh singles on a line drive to center fielder Evan Carter. Cole Young scores. Brendan Donovan to 3rd.2–0
1Brendan Donovan homers (3) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































