Mariners at Rangers
Last play · Julio Rodríguez flies out to right fielder Brandon Nimmo.
Win probability
Rangers100%
SEA 0%TEX 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 0 – 3 TEX
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-118 / -102
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Rangers favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brandon Nimmo reaches on a fielder's choice. Danny Jansen scores. Josh Smith scores. Ezequiel Duran to 3rd. Brandon Nimmo to 2nd. Throwing error by first baseman Connor Joe. (inning 5) — +25% Rangers
5Corey Seager out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Ezequiel Duran scores.0–3
5Brandon Nimmo reaches on a fielder's choice. Danny Jansen scores. Josh Smith scores. Ezequiel Duran to 3rd. Brandon Nimmo to 2nd. Throwing error by first baseman Connor Joe.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































