Rays at Rangers
Last play · Jorge Mateo flies out to shortstop Corey Seager.
Win probability
Rangers100%
TB 0%TEX 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 0 – 4 TEX
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rangers favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Justin Foscue singles on a ground ball to left fielder Chandler Simpson. Wyatt Langford scores. (inning 4) — +13% Rangers
8Jake Burger out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Victor Mesa Jr. Evan Carter scores.0–6
8Evan Carter triples (3) on a ground ball to right fielder Jonny DeLuca. Wyatt Langford scores.0–5
5Corey Seager homers (14) on a fly ball to right center field. Ezequiel Duran scores.0–4
5Ezequiel Duran singles on a fly ball to right fielder Jonny DeLuca. Logan O'Hoppe scores.0–2
4Justin Foscue singles on a ground ball to left fielder Chandler Simpson. Wyatt Langford scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































