Rays at Rangers
Last play · Justin Foscue grounds out, third baseman Junior Caminero to first baseman Jonathan Aranda.
Win probability
Rangers0%
TB 100%TEX 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 2 – 0 TEX
Rays led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-107 / -112
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rangers favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jonathan Aranda homers (19) on a fly ball to right center field. Jorge Mateo scores. Yandy Díaz scores. (inning 10) — -55% Rays
10Jonathan Aranda homers (19) on a fly ball to right center field. Jorge Mateo scores. Yandy Díaz scores.6–3
8Justin Foscue doubles (11) on a line drive to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Cam Cauley scores.3–3
8Evan Carter homers (9) on a fly ball to right center field.3–2
8Liam Hicks singles on a line drive to left fielder Wyatt Langford. Jonathan Aranda scores. Junior Caminero to 3rd.3–1
6Joc Pederson homers (25) on a fly ball to right field.2–1
5Richie Palacios homers (8) on a fly ball to right field.2–0
1Junior Caminero homers (38) on a line drive to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































