Rays at Rangers
TB6–
TEX8Last play · Jonny DeLuca flies out to left fielder Wyatt Langford.
Win probability
Rangers100%
TB 0%TEX 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 5 – 7 TEX
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 49.7% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-120 / -101
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rangers favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Justin Foscue doubles (12) on a line drive to right fielder Victor Mesa Jr. Logan O'Hoppe scores. Ezequiel Duran scores. Corey Seager to 3rd. (inning 4) — +27% Rangers
8Corey Seager homers (15) on a fly ball to left center field.6–8
7Jonny DeLuca singles on a line drive to center fielder Evan Carter. Chandler Simpson scores. Jonny DeLuca to 2nd.6–7
5Ezequiel Duran singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Victor Mesa Jr. Logan O'Hoppe scores. Elias Díaz to 2nd.5–7
5Elias Díaz singles on a line drive to center fielder Jonny DeLuca. Jake Burger scores. Logan O'Hoppe to 2nd.5–6
4Justin Foscue doubles (12) on a line drive to right fielder Victor Mesa Jr. Logan O'Hoppe scores. Ezequiel Duran scores. Corey Seager to 3rd.5–5
4Jake Burger homers (25) on a fly ball to center field. Wyatt Langford scores.5–3
4Junior Caminero out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Wyatt Langford. Yandy Díaz scores.5–1
2Jake Burger homers (24) on a fly ball to left center field.4–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.