Cardinals at Nationals
Last play · Daylen Lile grounds out, first baseman Alec Burleson to pitcher Riley O'Brien.
Win probability
Nationals0%
STL 100%WSH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 3 – 1 WSH
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-126 / +104
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Nationals favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Alec Burleson singles on a line drive to center fielder Jacob Young. Thomas Saggese scores. Nathan Church scores. Iván Herrera to 2nd. (inning 2) — -24% Cardinals
9Yohel Pozo singles on a ground ball to left fielder Daylen Lile. Iván Herrera scores. Alec Burleson scores. Jordan Walker to 3rd.6–1
7Alec Burleson singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jacob Young. JJ Wetherholt scores. Iván Herrera to 3rd.4–1
5Jordan Walker homers (5) on a fly ball to center field.3–1
3Luis García Jr. grounds into a force out, second baseman JJ Wetherholt to shortstop Masyn Winn. Jacob Young scores. James Wood out at 2nd. Luis García Jr. to 1st.2–1
2Alec Burleson singles on a line drive to center fielder Jacob Young. Thomas Saggese scores. Nathan Church scores. Iván Herrera to 2nd.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































