Marlins at Nationals
Last play · Dylan Crews singles on a line drive to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Nasim Nuñez scores. José Tena to 3rd. Daylen Lile to 2nd.
Win probability
Nationals100%
MIA 0%WSH 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 0 – 4 WSH
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 49.7% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-109 / +101
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Heriberto Hernández homers (22) on a fly ball to center field. Kyle Stowers scores. (inning 7) — -36% Marlins
10Dylan Crews singles on a line drive to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Nasim Nuñez scores. José Tena to 3rd. Daylen Lile to 2nd.4–5
7Heriberto Hernández homers (22) on a fly ball to center field. Kyle Stowers scores.4–4
7Kyle Stowers doubles (23) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Daylen Lile. Leo Jiménez scores. Agustín Ramírez scores.2–4
3Jorbit Vivas doubles (10) on a line drive to center fielder Jakob Marsee, deflected by left fielder Heriberto Hernández. Brady House scores.0–4
3Brady House singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Dylan Crews scores.0–3
3Dylan Crews singles on a soft ground ball to catcher Joe Mack. José Tena scores. Daylen Lile scores. Dylan Crews to 2nd. Throwing error by catcher Joe Mack.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































