Braves at Nationals
Last play · CJ Abrams strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Nationals0%
ATL 100%WSH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 0 – 0 WSH
Tied through 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-142 / +118
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Sean Murphy homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. Ronald Acuña Jr. scores. Michael Harris II scores. (inning 6) — -38% Braves
9Sean Murphy singles on a ground ball to left fielder Daylen Lile. Ozzie Albies scores. Brewer Hicklen to 2nd.9–0
8Austin Riley singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Daylen Lile. Sean Murphy scores. Mike Yastrzemski scores.8–0
7Ronald Acuña Jr. homers (14) on a fly ball to left center field. Ha-Seong Kim scores. Drake Baldwin scores.6–0
6Sean Murphy homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. Ronald Acuña Jr. scores. Michael Harris II scores.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































