North Carolina Central vs. Delaware State: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

North Carolina Central0-1

▸0052

Delaware State0-1

0010

Final

Alumni StadiumConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
NORT	21	14	14	3	52
DELA	3	0	0	7	10

NORTTeam statsDELA

427Total yards284

199Pass128

228Rush156

24First downs13

8-93rd down3-9

2Turnovers5

32:01Possession27:59

Scoring plays

• Q4 5:55DELAJaden Sutton 7 Yd Run (Nathan Wilson Kick)52–10
• Q4 10:39NORTJuan Velarde 53 Yd Field Goal 52–3
• Q3 0:56NORTChance Peterson 42 Yd pass from Joshua Jones (Juan Velarde Kick)49–3
• Q3 4:46NORTJoshua Jones 2 Yd Run (Juan Velarde Kick)42–3
• Q2 10:29NORTIsaiah Norris 37 Yd Interception Return (Juan Velarde Kick)35–3
• Q2 12:15NORTJ'Mari Taylor 3 Yd Run (Juan Velarde Kick)28–3
• Q1 2:02DELANathan Wilson 30 Yd Field Goal 21–0
• Q1 6:33NORTEric Adams 63 Yd Interception Return (Juan Velarde Kick)21–0
• Q1 8:19NORTJoshua Jones 2 Yd Run (Juan Velarde Kick)14–0
• Q1 11:20NORTJoshua Jones 6 Yd Run (Juan Velarde Kick)7–0

How the model called it

Market line

NORT −23.5

Against the number

NORT covered

line NORT −23.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

DELA 100%50%NORT 100%

Kickoff124 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

DELA (top)NORT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: DELA 0%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

NORT −23.5

Closing total

52.5

Model line

—

Actual result

NORT 52 – 10 DELA

Leaders

North Carolina Central

• PassJoshua Jones 11/15, 199 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
• RushJ'Mari Taylor 16 CAR, 78 YDS, 1 TD
• RecChance Peterson 3 REC, 85 YDS

Delaware State

• PassJaden Stewart 10/12, 98 YDS, 1 INT
• RushJaden Sutton 18 CAR, 113 YDS, 1 TD
• RecNyGhee Lolley 4 REC, 45 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

30.5sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

114

Points / snap

0.54

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

NORT up 46 entering the 4th quarter. Across 106 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

NORT went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WLSU vs Grambling72-10WRobert Morris vs Virginia University Of Lynchburg46-0WClemson vs App State66-20WButler vs Hanover College53-0WSouth Dakota State vs Murray State52-6

Fourth downs

6 calls

DELA gave up 1.1 points to the model on fourth down.NORT 1/1 · DELA 4/5 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of North Carolina Central vs. Delaware State?

North Carolina Central 52, Delaware State 10.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked DELA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

NORT

DELA

65%

Success rate

41%

0.25

EPA / pass

-0.40

0.32

EPA / rush

0.01

60%

Early-down success

39%

63%

Pass success

55%

66%

Rush success

32%

13%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

14%

17%

Stuffed rush rate

45%

25%

Pass rate

39%

5.7

Avg 3rd-down distance

7.7

NORT

5.7 yards to go on 3rd down

63 scrimmage snaps

DELA

7.7 yards to go on 3rd down

51 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

NORT		DELA
427	Total yards	284
199	Passing yards	128
228	Rushing yards	156
24	First downs	13
8-9	3rd down	3-9
0-0	4th down	1-1
11/16	Comp/Att	13/20
12.4	Yards per pass	6.4
5.1	Yards per rush	4.9
2	Turnovers	5
5-50	Penalties	7-66
32:01	Possession	27:59

Fourth downs

6 calls

NORT

1/1 with the model

nothing given up

DELA

4/5 with the model

−1.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q3 12:06 DELA punt on 4th & 1 at DELA 31. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.10 points.

Every call, priced (6)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

NORT 5/9 scoring drives← own end zone →DELA 4/11 scoring drives

NORTTD7 pl, 69 yds· own 31Q1

DELAPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 0Q1

NORTTD4 pl, 17 yds· opp 17Q1

DELATD4 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

DELAFG8 pl, 61 yds· own 25Q1

NORTTD10 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q1

DELATD3 pl, 64 yds· own 36Q2

DELAFUM10 pl, 24 yds· own 0Q2

NORTUncateg7 pl, -7 yds· own 43Q2

DELAFUM4 pl, 22 yds· own 13Q2

DELAPUNT5 pl, 23 yds· own 0Q3

NORTTD14 pl, 85 yds· own 15Q3

DELAINT4 pl, 13 yds· own 0Q3

NORTTD4 pl, 55 yds· own 45Q3

DELAPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 27Q3

NORTFUM1 pl, 0 yds· own 22Q4

DELATD1 pl, 7 yds· opp 7Q4

NORTFG7 pl, 29 yds· own 35Q4

DELAFUM8 pl, 47 yds· own 0Q4

NORTUncateg10 pl, 48 yds· opp 0Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 5:55DELAJaden Sutton 7 Yd Run (Nathan Wilson Kick)52–10
• Q4 10:39NORTJuan Velarde 53 Yd Field Goal 52–3
• Q3 0:56NORTChance Peterson 42 Yd pass from Joshua Jones (Juan Velarde Kick)49–3
• Q3 4:46NORTJoshua Jones 2 Yd Run (Juan Velarde Kick)42–3
• Q2 10:29NORTIsaiah Norris 37 Yd Interception Return (Juan Velarde Kick)35–3
• Q2 12:15NORTJ'Mari Taylor 3 Yd Run (Juan Velarde Kick)28–3
• Q1 2:02DELANathan Wilson 30 Yd Field Goal 21–0
• Q1 6:33NORTEric Adams 63 Yd Interception Return (Juan Velarde Kick)21–0
• Q1 8:19NORTJoshua Jones 2 Yd Run (Juan Velarde Kick)14–0
• Q1 11:20NORTJoshua Jones 6 Yd Run (Juan Velarde Kick)7–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →