North Carolina Central vs. UCLA: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

North Carolina Central

07

UCLA2-0

▸0059

Final

Rose Bowl

	1	2	3	4	T
NORT	0	0	0	7	7
UCLA	35	10	14	0	59

NORTTeam statsUCLA

232Total yards614

142Pass210

90Rush404

14First downs22

5-163rd down4-8

2Turnovers1

36:13Possession23:47

Scoring plays

• Q4 6:08NORTChris Mosley 1 Yd Run (Adrian Olivo Kick)7–59
• Q3 3:36UCLAAnthony Adkins 1 Yd Run (RJ Lopez Kick)0–59
• Q3 8:44UCLAColson Yankoff 25 Yd Run (RJ Lopez Kick)0–52
• Q2 4:34UCLATJ Harden 62 Yd Run (RJ Lopez Kick)0–45
• Q2 9:33UCLARJ Lopez 24 Yd Field Goal 0–38
• Q1 2:18UCLACollin Schlee 1 Yd Run (RJ Lopez Kick)0–35
• Q1 5:27UCLACollin Schlee 57 Yd Run (RJ Lopez Kick)0–28
• Q1 7:38UCLAJ. Michael Sturdivant 30 Yd pass from Dante Moore (RJ Lopez Kick)0–21
• Q1 13:46UCLACarson Steele 1 Yd Run (RJ Lopez Kick)0–14
• Q1 14:42UCLAKam Brown 67 Yd pass from Dante Moore (RJ Lopez Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

UCLA −35

Against the number

UCLA covered

line UCLA −35

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

UCLA 100%50%NORT 100%

Kickoff140 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

UCLA (top)NORT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: UCLA 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

UCLA −35

Closing total

60.5

Model line

—

Actual result

NORT 7 – 59 UCLA

Leaders

North Carolina Central

• PassWalker Harris 12/18, 114 YDS
• RushLatrell Collier 14 CAR, 48 YDS
• RecQuentin McCall 4 REC, 39 YDS

UCLA

• PassDante Moore 8/12, 182 YDS, 2 TD
• RushAnthony Adkins 10 CAR, 96 YDS, 1 TD
• RecKam Brown 2 REC, 74 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

29.3sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

122

Points / snap

0.54

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

UCLA up 59 entering the 4th quarter. Across 64 historically comparable game states (within ±3 pts and ±5 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

UCLA went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WOle Miss vs Mercer73-7WCoastal Carolina vs Duquesne66-7WArkansas-Pine Bluff vs Little Rock59-0WNicholls vs Mississippi Valley State66-0WUT Martin vs Houston Christian66-7

Fourth downs

13 calls

UCLA gave up 0.4 points to the model on fourth down.NORT 9/10 · UCLA 0/2 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of North Carolina Central vs. UCLA?

North Carolina Central 7, UCLA 59.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (UCLA) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

NORT

UCLA

36%

Success rate

59%

0.18

EPA / pass

0.69

-0.01

EPA / rush

0.70

36%

Early-down success

62%

39%

Pass success

56%

33%

Rush success

61%

3%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

25%

12%

Stuffed rush rate

21%

50%

Pass rate

32%

7.5

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.6

NORT

7.5 yards to go on 3rd down

66 scrimmage snaps

UCLA

5.6 yards to go on 3rd down

56 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

NORT		UCLA
232	Total yards	614
142	Passing yards	210
90	Rushing yards	404
14	First downs	22
5-16	3rd down	4-8
1-1	4th down	0-1
17/31	Comp/Att	10/17
4.6	Yards per pass	12.4
2.4	Yards per rush	10.4
2	Turnovers	1
4-25	Penalties	3-20
36:13	Possession	23:47

Fourth downs

13 calls

NORT

9/10 with the model

−0.4 pts · −0.0% win prob

UCLA

0/2 with the model

−0.4 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q1 10:08 NORT punt on 4th & 4 at UCLA 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.43 points.

Every call, priced (13)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

NORT 1/13 scoring drives← own end zone →UCLA 9/13 scoring drives

UCLATD1 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q1

NORTINT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q1

UCLATD1 pl, 1 yds· opp 1Q1

NORTPUNT7 pl, 27 yds· own 25Q1

UCLATD6 pl, 88 yds· own 12Q1

NORTPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q1

UCLATD1 pl, 57 yds· own 43Q1

NORTPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 18Q1

UCLATD3 pl, 45 yds· opp 45Q1

NORTPUNT6 pl, 17 yds· own 25Q1

UCLAFG13 pl, 76 yds· own 18Q2

NORTPUNT5 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q2

UCLATD3 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q2

NORTPUNT7 pl, 22 yds· own 25Q2

UCLAEND2 pl, 14 yds· own 19Q2

NORTPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q3

UCLAINT3 pl, 0 yds· own 48Q3

NORTPUNT3 pl, -9 yds· own 37Q3

UCLATD5 pl, 72 yds· own 28Q3

NORTPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 28Q3

UCLATD8 pl, 83 yds· own 17Q3

NORTFUM6 pl, 37 yds· own 25Q3

UCLADOWNS5 pl, 18 yds· own 38Q3

NORTTD14 pl, 56 yds· own 44Q4

UCLAPUNT6 pl, 13 yds· own 25Q4

NORTEND5 pl, 33 yds· own 30Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 6:08NORTChris Mosley 1 Yd Run (Adrian Olivo Kick)7–59
• Q3 3:36UCLAAnthony Adkins 1 Yd Run (RJ Lopez Kick)0–59
• Q3 8:44UCLAColson Yankoff 25 Yd Run (RJ Lopez Kick)0–52
• Q2 4:34UCLATJ Harden 62 Yd Run (RJ Lopez Kick)0–45
• Q2 9:33UCLARJ Lopez 24 Yd Field Goal 0–38
• Q1 2:18UCLACollin Schlee 1 Yd Run (RJ Lopez Kick)0–35
• Q1 5:27UCLACollin Schlee 57 Yd Run (RJ Lopez Kick)0–28
• Q1 7:38UCLAJ. Michael Sturdivant 30 Yd pass from Dante Moore (RJ Lopez Kick)0–21
• Q1 13:46UCLACarson Steele 1 Yd Run (RJ Lopez Kick)0–14
• Q1 14:42UCLAKam Brown 67 Yd pass from Dante Moore (RJ Lopez Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →